A stress test for Platner and Mills

A new ad, three audiences, and the battle for electability.

The Susan Collins campaign playbook is predictable.

One element involves trashing her opponent, framing them as risky, and twisting their strengths into weaknesses.

While the Collins campaign prepares to foreground policy complaints and Republican corruption smears against Janet Mills, it’s eyeing Graham Platner’s Reddit history and his covered-up Totenkopf tattoo.

Collins ads have already laughably called Democrats “radical.”

Before Collins uncorking her attacks on particular candidates, her Democratic opponent needs to win the June 9 primary, a race that’s rapidly heating up.

The new Mills campaign ad, which includes four women reacting to 2013 posts of Platner’s regarding sexual assault, is a strategic move aimed at three distinct audiences.

Audience 1: Maine Primary Voters

Recent polls show Platner leading, with widely varying margins.

Graham Platner, an active and charismatic campaigner whose message and persona fits with an electorate ready for change, apologized for past remarks when they first emerged and appeared to have weathered the political storm.

Platner’s complaints about the ad and revelations about his past comments are themselves political, situating himself versus the Democratic Establishment.

But let’s remember that typically the Democratic primary electorate is majority women. While many voters heard about Platner’s responsibility comments regarding assault months ago, they haven’t had much coverage lately.

The Mills ad puts that controversial topic in the spotlight, prompting primary voters to decide if his redemption arc holds weight.

Audience 2: General Election Voters

This audience is indirectly about primary voters because sometimes their vote decisions include assessments of who can win in the fall.

While Platner currently polls better against Collins than Mills does, that’s happened after negative baggage faded somewhat from public memory.

Platner’s lead may be like a dandelion. In its first stage, it’s resilient and spreads quickly. After the flower goes from yellow to white, it’s built of fuzz that’s unstable and falls apart with a sharp blow of air.

Collins has historically won by attracting older, independent women. In 2020, Collins did better than Trump did with those groups and with Democratic women and urban voters.

We don’t know if those voters will be turned off by attack ads just generally if they’ll negatively respond to Platner’s posts or positively to his apologies.¹

If Mills’ ad deflates Platner’s standing with this demographic and that shows up in the polls, his electability argument weakens.

Audience 3: The Media

Reporters focus on novelty. With this Mills ad, news stories about the primary campaign for awhile will include the words “sexual assault” and “controversial posts.”

Expect stories about potential liabilities of a Platner candidacy and what’s been problematic for Mills.

How the campaigns handle this is telling.

Platner has reiterated his repudiation of the remarks, which he’s said occurred when suffering with PTSD. Rep. Valli Geiger, who’s endorsed Platner, pointed to Mills vetoing funding for rape kits, although previously Geiger said “The Senate and the House failed to do the work as it’s usually done.” Two years after that, the evidence kits were funded.²

At first Platner’s media strategist absurdly responded with the suggestion that leftist candidates would get nailed if they went negative in a primary. Given that he recently worked for NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who certainly criticized opponent Andrew Cuomo, that comes across as somewhat whiny.

In a U.S. Senate race, acting shocked by scrutiny is a tactical error.

As for the Mills campaign, reviving attention to Platner’s posts is a choice with unknown costs and benefits. Gov. Mills knows a lot about local and state needs. The Mills campaign could have run a different ad, perhaps touting her considerable policy accomplishments or talking about what she wants to do as a senator to help Mainers.

The Great Unknown

What the Mills campaign is doing is a gentle breeze compared to the gale Susan Collins will create. Her team will likely engage in the kind of Swiftboating and smears that can rewrite a candidate’s entire biography. Primary voters may know that but it’s unclear how much that matters to them.

What once was disqualifying in the past may not be now.

The questions now are whether Platner’s campaign is built of something more resilient than dandelion fuzz or if Mills, who’s won two statewide elections with strong majorities, can beat him.

With different styles, experience in governing, lives, ages and policies, Platner and Mills have their own strengths and weaknesses. Platner articulates broad messages well, while Mills knows local Maine needs and how to be effective in office.

Democratic voters are upset at party leaders for being insufficiently resistant to Trump. Mills has stood up to Trump while Platner has called out the administration.

Platner’s committed base, populism and extensive field operation have given him strength. He’s drawing enthusiastic crowds who agree with his critique of the system and policy ideas. It’s doubtful his strongest supporters are going anywhere.

But some voters are susceptible to the critical ads they claim to hate. And Platner’s lack of a political background means voters didn’t know anything about him before he started running.³ A lot are still learning, including through ads.

I’m the daughter of an English teacher, so I hate to mix metaphors, but here goes:

As I wrote back last fall, “A competitive primary isn’t a distraction. It’s a crucible that tests candidates and shows who’s strongest.”

1. I’d think the Mills campaign has message tested this ad, but I have no inside information.

2. Portland Press Herald reporter Randy Billings laid out the complications involving the rape kits in “Platner supporters hit Mills over funding for sexual assault cases. Here’s the full story.” Gift link here.

3. Moreover, Platner’s campaign, per this Politico article and other reports, didn’t do the normal vetting a Senate campaign would do before a campaign announcement, so it was not terribly prepared when news reports broke about his Reddit posts and tattoo.